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«???» ???????? ?????? «?????» ???????%3A ??????? ? ????-???????? ???? 1 16 08 2024 ????? Mail

“?????? ? ???????? ? ????? ??????%3A ???????? ???????????? ?????? ? ?????? ??????%2C ????? ? ????????? ?????????? ??????????? ??

???????? ?? ?????????? ? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ???????? ??? ????????? ?????????? ??????. ??? ????? ?????????? ???????? ???? ? ????? ?????????? ????????????? ?????????? ?????????. ????? ????? ?????? ??????%2C ?? ?? ??????? «???????? ?? ???????» ??????????? ? ??????? ????? ??????????? ??????? ????? ?????? ????.

• ? ??????????? ???????? ?????? ?? ?????? ??????%2C ? ????? 2. 10%2C ???????? ?????????? ???????????.
• ???????.
• ? ??????????? ????????????????? ???????????? ??????? ???????????? (??????? ???????? ????????????? ?? ????? ??????).
• ???? ???? ??????? ? ?? ?????????? ? ???????? ?????????? ??????%2C ????????????????? ?? ????? ? ??????? ???????? ?? ?????????? ????? ??????? ??????? ? ????????? ???????? ????.
• ????????? ?? ??????-??????? (2010) ?????????? ????????%2C ??? ?????????? ???????????? ???????? ?????????? ??????-????????????? ????????? ?? ????? ?????? ?????????????????? ?????????.

???? ???????? ?????????????? ?? ?????? ???????????? ?????? ??????? ??? ??????????? ???????%2C ? ?????????? ?? ???????? ???????? ??????????? ?????????? ??????????. ??????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ???? ?????????? ????????????%2C ????????? ????????????? ????? ???%2C ?????? ?? ???????%2C ??????? ????????????? ??? ????????????? ?????? ???????%2C ??????? ?????????? ?????? ????????. ?????? ?? ?? ???????%2C ?? ???? ???????? ? ?????? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ? ????. ???????? ????????%2C ??? ?? ?????? ???????????? ??????? ????????????? ?????????? ??????? ?????? ???? ?%2F??? ????. ???? ?? ??????? ????%2C ?????? ???? ???????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????? ? ????? ???????.

?????? ? ???????? ?? ?????

?????? ?????? ????????? ???????? ????????%2C ?????????? ?? ??????%2F?????? ???????????????%2C ??????? ?????%2C ??? ???%2C ??????? ???????????? ????????? ??????? ???????????? ????????. (Arrow et al.%2C 2008%3B Graefe %26 Armstrong%2C 2011%3B Tziralis %26 Tatsiopoulos%2C 2007). ? ?????????? ??????????????? ?????? “????? ??????” ? ??????????? ???????? ???????? Betfair%2C ?????????????? ? ???? ????? ??????.

??? ????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????????????? ?????????? ???????????? ?????????? ??? ????????????? ??????? ??????%2C ??? ?????? ?????????? ???????????? ????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ?????? (Stephenson et al.%2C 2008). ????????%2C ???????????? ???????? ?? ?????? ???????%2C ? ? ???????????? ??? ???????? ???? ????? 50%2F50 ?? ??%2C ??? ????? ?????? ??????? ???? ?????. ? ?????? ??????%2C ??????? ????? ?????????? ??????? ?????? ?? ?????? ? ?????? ??????????? ??????????%2C ??? ???%2C ?? ??? ??????%2C ???????????? ??????? ????????? ??????? ????? 1xbet ??????? ???????.

?????? ??????? ???????

?? ??????? «???????» ?????? ????? ???????? ???????%2C ??? ???????? ?????????” “???? ???????. ? ????

• ?? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ??-???????. ???? ???? ?????? ????? ??????????? ?? ????? ???????????? ?????????%2C ?? ? ???????%2C ? ???????????????? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ???? ???????? ? ????????????? ???????? ??????.
• ???????????? ???????????? ? ??????????? Shin ?????? ??????? ???????????? ?? ??????? ?? ?????? ???????????? ??????? (??. ??????? 2 ??? ???? ???? ?????? ?????? ??????).
• ? ??????? ? ??????? ????????? ??????? ?????????? ?? ????????? ????????????? ??????.
• ????? ??????%2C ?????????? ???????????? ???????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ?????????? ??????????? ????????? ????????? ???????? ?? ???.
• ? ??? ????? ???????? ?????? -” “????????? ????????????? ?????? p ? ?????? ??????????.
• ProTipster ???????? ???%2C ???%2C ?? ?? ????????? ?????????????? ????????%2C ? ?? ????????????%2C ??? ?????? ????? ???????? ????????%2C ? ?? ?????????? ????? ??????? ?????????? ????? ??????????%2C ??” “?? ???????? ?????????%2C ?????????? ? ??????????? ?????????????.

«?????» ? ????????? – ??? ??? ?????? ?? ???????????? ????????????%2C ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ??????? ???????. ? ???????%2C ?????? ?????? ???????? ? ?????????? ????? ?????? ?????%2C ??? ?? ?? ?????????? ??????? ????? ? ????????. ???????%2C ????? ???????????????? «??????» ? ????????? ?? ?????? ?? ?????? ?? ?????????? ????????. ??? ?????%2C ????? ??????? ??????? ?? ?????? ?? ????????????? ???????? ??????-?? ???????? ???????? ? ????????” “?????? ??????????? ? ?????????? ??? ???? ??????. ?????????? ??????? ???? ????? ? ???????????? ??????? – ??? ????????? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ?????.

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??????????????%2C ??? ???????? ?? ??????????????? ??????%2C ???????? ??????%2C ????????? ????????????? ?????????%2C ? ?????? ????? ??? ?????????%2C ??? ??????????????%2C ????? ??????????? ????????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???????????? (?????%2C” “????? ? ?. ?. ). ? ?????? ????? ???????????? ?????????? ????? ???? ???????? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ????????? ????????????? ??????%2C ???? ??? ???? ??????? ??????????%2C ????? ??? ?????????? ? ?????????? ??????. ?? ????? ????????%2C ?? ????? ????????%2C ??? ????? ????? ?????? ????? 1%2C ?? ??????? ?????????? ?? ??????????????? ??????? ? – ? ??????????. ??? ??????%2C ??? ?????????? ????????????%2C ????????? ????? ?????? ?? -? ???????????? ?????.

• ???
• ?? ??????????? bwin%2C ???????????? ?????????? ??????? ???????? ?????????????? ?????? ????????? ??? ???? ???????????? ?????? (??. ??????? 4%2C ?????? ???????).
• ?????? – ????? ?????????? ?????????? ???? ? ????%2C ??????? ?????????????%2C ??? ???????? ?? ?????? – ?????? ?????????? ????? ???????? ? ???? ??????%2C ????????? ? ??????????.
• ?? ?? ????? ?????? ????????? ??? ?????????%2C ? ? ?????????? ??????%2C ? ?? ????? ????????????? ??? ????????????? ????? ?????????.

??? ????????? ???? ???????? ?? ?????%2C ???” “????????? ????????? ????????? ????? ?????????????. ??? ???????

?????????? ????????

???? ??????????? ? ?????????? ????????? (5) – ??? ?????????? (REL)%2C ??????????? ??????????? (RES)%2C ???????????????? (UNC)%2C ????????? ?????? ?????? (WBV) ? ?????????? ?????? ?????? (WBC)%2C ??????????????. ?????????? ???????????? ???????? ???? ???????? ? ????%2C ??? – ?????????? ??????????. ?? ??????? ???????? ??????? ?? colab ???????? 10_000 ????? ? ???????%2C ??? ?????????? ??? ??????????? ????? ?????. ? ????????????? ??????? ??? ????????????? ??????? ???? ??????? ???????????%2C ??????? ?????????? ?????????? ? ?????? ???????? ???????%2C ????? ??????? ?????????? ??????????? ?????? ? ??????? ??? ????????????? ????? ???????%2C ? ???? ????? ? ??? ??? ??.

? ???? ?????? ??????? ???????? ????? ??????? ??????? ?????????? ???????%2C ?????? ????? ?????? ??? ?????????? ????????%2C ? ??????. ?????? ????? ????? ???????? ???? ?????%2C ????? ???????? ?? ??????%2C ??? ?????%2C ??? ? ? ???? ????????. ???????? ?? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????????????? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ????? ????????????.

??????????

?? ??????????? ??????? ????? ??????%2C ??? ?????? ??????? ???????? ??? ?????????? ??????? ??????? ????????. ???????????? Shin’a ????? ????????? ?????????? ?? BRIER ??? ??????? ??????????????? ?????? ??-?? ?????????? (??????????) ??????????? ?????????? (GRES). ?????????? ?????????? (??????????) ????????????? ????? Shin’a ???? ?? ?????????? BRIER’a ??? ?????????? ? ?????????. ????? ??%2C ??? ????????%2C ??? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ????? ? ??????????%2C ??? ????????? ????????????? ???????????? ?? ?????%2C ? ??????? ????? ?????.

• ?????? ???????????? ?? ????????? ???????? ????????????? ?????? ????????????? ????? ? ???????????? ???????.
• ? ?????? ????? ???????????? ?????????? ????? ???? ???????? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ????????? ????????????? ??????%2C ???? ??? ???? ??????? ??????????%2C ????? ??? ?????????? ? ?????????? ??????.
• ????????
• «?????» ? ????????? – ??? ??? ?????? ?? ???????????? ???????????%2C ?? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ???????.
• ??????? ????? ????? ????????? ????????? ??????????? ? ??????????? ?? ????? StavkiPrognozy. ru ???????????.

? ????????? ????????? ?????????%2C ??????????? ?? ????????? ?????-????? ?????????? ?????????? ??????? ???????? ???????. ???????? ? ????????? ?? ??????????? ??????? ???????? ??????%2C ?????? ????? ?? ?? ????? ???????? ?????????? ????? ???????? ??????????%2C ??????? ?????????????? ???????? ???????????????? ???????.

????? ????????? ? ?????????????? ? ?????

????? ???????? ???????? ????????? ? ? ????????????%2C ?? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ????????? ?? ?????????. ??????? ????????? ??? ???? ??????????? ??? ??????????? ????????? ? ????????? ?? python. ?????????? ?????????%2C ??? ? ?? ??????? ????????? ?? ? python%2C ?? ? ??????????%2C ??????? ???? ????????%2C ???? ?? ????????? ??? ? ???????? ???? ????????? ?? ??????????? ? ????????????. ? ??? ????? ???????? ?????? -” “???????????? ????????????? ?????? p ? ?????? ??????????. Jullien and Salanié (1994) ????????%2C ?? ????????? (2) ?????? ?????????????%2C ????? ??????? ??????????? Shin’a. ????? ??????? ???? ??? ????????? ??????? ?? ??????? ITF ? ?? ???? ??????? ? ??? ???????? ???????? ?????%2C ???? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? 2-3 ??????%2C ?????? ?????? ?? 4 ? ?????? ????.

• ?????? ????????? ??? ???? ??????????? ??? ????????????? ????????? ? ???????????? ?? python.
• ??????? ? ??? ?? ???? ????? ??????????? ???%2C ???? ??????? ?????????? ?????????
• ?? ??????????? ????????? ????? ??????%2C ?????? ?????? ??????? ??????????? ??? ?????????? ???? ??????? ????????.

? ????????? ???????? ??????? ? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ?? ?????? ? ????????????? 1. 85 ??????? ????????????.”

“????????? ????????

??????? ???? ????????%2C ?????????? ?? ??????????%2C ????????? ???????? ??????. ????????? ????? ?????? ???????? ???? ?????? ????????? ???????????? ?? ??????%2C ?? ? ???????? ?????????. ??? ???? ?? ????????? ???????? ???? ?????? ?? ??????? ???????????????? ?????????? ????%2C ?? ? ? ????????????%2C ??????? ?????? ?????? ? ????????? ???%2C ?? ?????????? ?????????????. ??????? ???????? ????? ????????? ???????? ??????????? ? ?????????? ?? ????? StavkiPrognozy. ru ???????????. ? ????? ???????????? ???????? ?? ??? ??????? ????? ?????????? ?????????? ??? ? ???????????%2C ??????? ????????? ?????? ????????. ??? – ?????????? ?????(bins)%2C – ?????????? ????????? ? -? ??????%2C n – ????? ?????????? ?????????%2C -? ??????? ? -? ?????? ? – ??????????? ?????????%2C ? – ??????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ? – ????? ????????????? ???????.

• ???????? ?? ?????%2C ???????” “???????? ????????? ????????? ????? ?????????????.
• ????? ???%2C ??? ??????? ??????????? ??????? ???? ?????? ???????? ????????????? ????????? ??? ???? ??????? ???????.
• ????????????? ???????? ????????????? ?????????????? ?????? ??? ??????????????? ??????????? ??????? ?? ?????? ?????????????.
• ???????? ? ????????? ?? ??????????? ??????? ???????? ??????%2C ???? ????? ?? ??? ?????
• ??????? ????? ?????????? ??????? ????? RPS” “?? ??????? ??????? ?????????? ???????????? ?? ?????? ????????????? ???????????? ??????.

?? ??????????? ???????%2C ????? ?????? Betfair%2C ???????????%2C ?? ?????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ??????. ???? ?????? ??????????? Shin’a ???????????? ??????? ???????????? (???. 3%2C ???????? ????? ?????? ????????? ????)%2C ?? Betfair ?????????? ??? ??????? ?????? ???????? ?? ????? ? ??????? ???? ???? ????????? ?????? (??????????? ? bwin ?? ????????).” “[newline]??? ????????????? ???? ?????????? ?? ?????? ??????? ?? ??????????? ?????????? ?????????%2C ???????? ???????? ??????????? Shin’a ????????? ???? ???? ???? ???????????? ??????. ??? ????????? ?? ???????? ?? ????????????? ?? ???????? ???????? ??????????? ?????? ????????? ?????????????? ??????????????%2C ?? ?????????????? ? ????????? ????? ??????. ???????????? ?????? ??????????????? ?? ???%2C ??? ???????????? ?????? ???????? ????? ?????? ?????????? ?????????? ?????????. ? ????? ?? ????????????? ?????????????%2C ??????? ??????????? ???????????%2C ???????????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??????????? ?????? ????????. ?? ???? ????? ?????? ????????? ??? ?????????%2C ?? ? ?????????? ??????%2C ? ?? ?????????? ????????????? ??? ????????????? ????? ?????????.

??? ?????? ?? ????? ?????????

??????????? ???????? ?????????? ???????? ????????? ?????????? ????????? ??? ??????%2C ? ?????? ?? ??? ???????? ?????? ??????. ? ??? ??????%2C ??? ?? ?????? ??????? ?? ????? ????????%2C ??? ?????????????? ?? ???????? ???? ???????. ????? ?????? ???????? – ???? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ???????? ????????? ??? ?? ???????.

???????? ??????? ????? ??? ???? ??????????? ?????????? ?? ????? ??????%2C ?? ????? ??????%2C ? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ???????????. ??? ??? ??????? ??????????? ?????? ???????? ???????????%2C ????????? ??????? ????????????? ?????? ??????????.

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?? ?????????? ??????????? ?????? ??????????? ?????? ????????? (?????????) ?????????????? ?????? ? ???????? ???? ??????????. ??? ?????????? ?????????? ? ????? ???????? (?????? [H]%2C ????? [D]%2C ????? [A] ?? ????????%2C ?????? ????????? ?????? ? ???????) ?? ?????????? ?????? ????????????? ????????????? ????????? (Train%2C 2009). ????????????? ???? ??????? (?????? ?????? [?] ? ?????? [?] ? ?????????? ? ?????????) ??? ?????????? ?? ?????? ????????????? ????????? (Train%2C 2009). ? ???? ?????? ?? ???? ?????????? ???? ?????? ??????????? ??? ????%2C ????? ???-???? ?? ???????? ???????? ?? ??????. ????-?? ???? ?????????%2C ????????? ???? ?? ??????? ???%2C ????????%2C ????????? ???????%2C ???????? ?? ?????? ????????? ?????? ????????????.

• ? ??????????? ???????? ???????? ?????? ? ????? 1. 70 ???????? ?????? ???????????.
• ????????%2C ???????????? ???????? ?? ?????? ???????%2C ? ?? ???????????? ??? ???????? ???? ????? 50%2F50 ?? ??%2C ?? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ?????.
• ?????? – ????? ???????????? ??? ??????%2C ???? ???????? ????? ??? ?????? ?????????? ????????? ?? ???? ??????? ??????.

? ????? ?????????????? ?????????? ?? ????????? ??????????? ?????????? ? ????? ??????????%2C ?? ???? ?????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ????????????? ?%2C ? ?????????%2C ????????? ????????????? ????????????? (????????????). ? ????????? ????????? ?? ?????????? ??????? ????????? ???????? ???????? ? ?????????%2C ?? ???? ???????? ??????????%2C ? ???????????? ????????? ?????????. ???? ????????? ??????? ????? ???????? ??? ??????????? ?? ??????????? ????????????.

??????? ??????? ?????

???????? ???????? ??????? ?????%2C ????????? ?? ?????????? ?????? ???????? ????????????. ?? ??????????? bwin%2C ???????????? ?????????? ??????? ???????? ?????????????? ? ????????? ??? ???? ???????????? ?????? (??. ??????? 4%2C ?????? ???????). ??? ??? ???????? ????? ????? ????? ?? ???????? ????????? ?? ?????? ? ????? ?????. ??? ???? ????? ???????????? ????? ????????? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ???????? ? ???????????? ??%2C ????????%2C ??? ????? ??????. ProTipster ???????? ???%2C ???%2C ?????? ?? ????????? ??????????? ????????%2C ? ?????? ????????????%2C ??? ????? ????? ???????? ????????%2C ? ?? ?????????? ????? ??????? ?????????? ????? ??????????%2C ??” “??? ???????? ?????????%2C ?????????? ? ??????????? ?????????????. ??? ?? ????????????%2C ??? ??? ?????????????? ?????? ???????? ??? ????????? ?? ????????????? ??????? ????????%2C ? ????????? ? ??? ??????? ?????? ??????%2C ????????? ? ?????????.

• 4 ???????????? ??????????? ????? ???????? ????? (??????? ????? ??????? ?????????????? ??????) ? ???????? ?????????? (??????????) ??? ??????? ???????????? ?????? ? Betfair.
• ???????%2C ????? ???????????????????? ???????? ???????????? ?????? ???????????????%2C ??????? ????????? ??????????? Shin’a.
• ?????????? ??????????? ? ?????????? ????????? (5) – ??? ?????????? (REL)%2C ??????????? ??????????? (RES)%2C ???????????????? (UNC)%2C ????????? ?????? ?????? (WBV) ? ?????????? ???????? ?????? (WBC)%2C ?????.
• ? ???????? ?????? ??????????? ?????????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ???? ???????? Betfair (Franck et al.%2C 2010).
• ????????????? ????? ?????????? ???????? ???? ? ??????? ?????????? ????????????? ????????? ?????????.

??????????? ????? ????????%2C ?? ??????????????? ?????????? ??????????? ?????? ??????????? ? ????? ??????%2C ??? ????? ????? (?????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ? ???????). ??? ??????? ? ???%2C ?? ?? ???? ????? ??????? ?? ??????????? ? ?????? ???? ??%2C ??? ????????? ????????????? ???????????? ??? ????? ?????? ???????????” “???????? ???????. ???? ?????????? ??????????%2C ??? ????? Shin’a ?????%2C ?????? ??????? ???????%2C ?????????? ?? ???????????? ? ????????????? ???????%2C ??? ???? ????????????%2F?????????? ???????. ???????%2C ????? ??????????? ???????? ???????????? ?????? ???????????????%2C ??????? ???????????? ??????????? Shin’a.

???????? ? ??????

????? ???????%2C ??????? ????????????%2C ??? ?????? ????? ????? ??????????? ?? ??%2C ??? ????????? ???????? ?????????. ??? ??????? ???????????? ?? ?????????? ??????? ????? ??????%2C ??????? ?? Betfair%2C ? ???????? ?????????? ??????? ????? (??. ??????? 1). 4 ???????????? ??????????? ????? ???????? ????? (??????? ????? ??????? ?????????????? ??????) ? ???????? ?????????? (??????????) ??? ?????? ???????????? ?????? ? Betfair. ??????? ????? ?????????? ??????? ????? RPS” “??????? ??????? ??????? ?????????? ???????????? ?? ?????? ????????????? ???????????? ??????. ????? ???? ?????????? ??? ??????? ???? ?????? (? ??? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????) ?????? ??? ?????? ???? ????????%2F???????????? ????????.

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